Daily Papers

In practical scenarios, time series forecasting necessitates not only accuracy but also efficiency. Consequently, the exploration of model architectures remains a perennially trending topic in research. To address these challenges, we propose a novel backbone architecture named Time Evidence Fusion Network (TEFN) from the perspective of information fusion. Specifically, we introduce the Basic Probability Assignment (BPA) Module based on evidence theory to capture the uncertainty of multivariate time series data from both channel and time dimensions. Additionally, we develop a novel multi-source information fusion method to effectively integrate the two distinct dimensions from BPA output, leading to improved forecasting accuracy. Lastly, we conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate that TEFN achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art methods while maintaining significantly lower complexity and reduced training time. Also, our experiments show that TEFN exhibits high robustness, with minimal error fluctuations during hyperparameter selection. Furthermore, due to the fact that BPA is derived from fuzzy theory, TEFN offers a high degree of interpretability. Therefore, the proposed TEFN balances accuracy, efficiency, stability, and interpretability, making it a desirable solution for time series forecasting.

We present IBR, an Iterative Backward Reasoning model to solve the proof generation tasks on rule-based Question Answering (QA), where models are required to reason over a series of textual rules and facts to find out the related proof path and derive the final answer. We handle the limitations of existed works in two folds: 1) enhance the interpretability of reasoning procedures with detailed tracking, by predicting nodes and edges in the proof path iteratively backward from the question; 2) promote the efficiency and accuracy via reasoning on the elaborate representations of nodes and history paths, without any intermediate texts that may introduce external noise during proof generation. There are three main modules in IBR, QA and proof strategy prediction to obtain the answer and offer guidance for the following procedure; parent node prediction to determine a node in the existing proof that a new child node will link to; child node prediction to find out which new node will be added to the proof. Experiments on both synthetic and paraphrased datasets demonstrate that IBR has better in-domain performance as well as cross-domain transferability than several strong baselines. Our code and models are available at https://github.com/find-knowledge/IBR .

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

Printed Circuit Board (PCB) assurance in the optical domain is a crucial field of study. Though there are many existing PCB assurance methods using image processing, computer vision (CV), and machine learning (ML), the PCB field is complex and increasingly evolving so new techniques are required to overcome the emerging problems. Existing ML-based methods outperform traditional CV methods, however they often require more data, have low explainability, and can be difficult to adapt when a new technology arises. To overcome these challenges, CV methods can be used in tandem with ML methods. In particular, human-interpretable CV algorithms such as those that extract color, shape, and texture features increase PCB assurance explainability. This allows for incorporation of prior knowledge, which effectively reduce the number of trainable ML parameters and thus, the amount of data needed to achieve high accuracy when training or retraining an ML model. Hence, this study explores the benefits and limitations of a variety of common computer vision-based features for the task of PCB component detection using semantic data. Results of this study indicate that color features demonstrate promising performance for PCB component detection. The purpose of this paper is to facilitate collaboration between the hardware assurance, computer vision, and machine learning communities.

Combined electric power system and High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) models are being developed to determine the effect of a HEMP on the US power grid. The work relies primarily on deterministic methods; however, it is computationally untenable to evaluate the E1 HEMP response of large numbers of grid components distributed across a large interconnection. Further, the deterministic assessment of these components' failures are largely unachievable. E1 HEMP laboratory testing of the components is accomplished, but is expensive, leaving few data points to construct failure models of grid components exposed to E1 HEMP. The use of Bayesian priors, developed using the subject matter expertise, combined with the minimal test data in a Bayesian inference process, provides the basis for the development of more robust and cost-effective statistical component failure models. These can be used with minimal computational burden in a simulation environment such as sampling of Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs).

Polymeric nano- and micro-scale particles have critical roles in tackling critical healthcare and energy challenges with their miniature characteristics. However, tailoring their synthesis process to meet specific design targets has traditionally depended on domain expertise and costly trial-and-errors. Recently, modeling strategies, particularly Bayesian optimization (BO), have been proposed to aid materials discovery for maximized/minimized properties. Coming from practical demands, this study for the first time integrates constrained and composite Bayesian optimization (CCBO) to perform efficient target value optimization under black-box feasibility constraints and limited data for laboratory experimentation. Using a synthetic problem that simulates electrospraying, a model nanomanufacturing process, CCBO strategically avoided infeasible conditions and efficiently optimized particle production towards predefined size targets, surpassing standard BO pipelines and providing decisions comparable to human experts. Further laboratory experiments validated CCBO capability to guide the rational synthesis of poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid) (PLGA) particles with diameters of 300 nm and 3.0 mum via electrospraying. With minimal initial data and unknown experiment constraints, CCBO reached the design targets within 4 iterations. Overall, the CCBO approach presents a versatile and holistic optimization paradigm for next-generation target-driven particle synthesis empowered by artificial intelligence (AI).

In recent years, Printed Circuit Boards (PCB) have become the backbone of a large number of consumer electronic devices leading to a surge in their production. This has made it imperative to employ automatic inspection systems to identify manufacturing defects in PCB before they are installed in the respective systems. An important task in this regard is the classification of defects as either true or pseudo defects, which decides if the PCB is to be re-manufactured or not. This work proposes a novel approach to detect most common defects in the PCBs. The problem has been approached by employing highly discriminative features based on multi-scale wavelet transform, which are further boosted by using a kernalized version of the support vector machines (SVM). A real world printed circuit board dataset has been used for quantitative analysis. Experimental results demonstrated the efficacy of the proposed method.

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a foundational strategy in the field of engineering design optimization for efficiently handling black-box functions with many constraints and expensive evaluations. This paper introduces a fast and accurate BO framework that leverages Pre-trained Transformers for Bayesian Optimization (PFN4sBO) to address constrained optimization problems in engineering. Unlike traditional BO methods that rely heavily on Gaussian Processes (GPs), our approach utilizes Prior-data Fitted Networks (PFNs), a type of pre-trained transformer, to infer constraints and optimal solutions without requiring any iterative retraining. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PFN-based BO through a comprehensive benchmark consisting of fifteen test problems, encompassing synthetic, structural, and engineering design challenges. Our findings reveal that PFN-based BO significantly outperforms Constrained Expected Improvement and Penalty-based GP methods by an order of magnitude in speed while also outperforming them in accuracy in identifying feasible, optimal solutions. This work showcases the potential of integrating machine learning with optimization techniques in solving complex engineering challenges, heralding a significant leap forward for optimization methodologies, opening up the path to using PFN-based BO to solve other challenging problems, such as enabling user-guided interactive BO, adaptive experiment design, or multi-objective design optimization. Additionally, we establish a benchmark for evaluating BO algorithms in engineering design, offering a robust platform for future research and development in the field. This benchmark framework for evaluating new BO algorithms in engineering design will be published at https://github.com/rosenyu304/BOEngineeringBenchmark.